Add stochastic uncertainty surface, robustness fixes, and broader pyfrbus validation gates - #5
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… gates - New frbus.uncertainty.stochsim_bands(): seeded residual-bootstrap percentile bands (68/90 default, configurable) around any shock scenario, with honest replication failure accounting (n_failed, failure_rate; raises only when all replications fail). - Robustness: stochsim narrows bare Exception to FrbusError so programming errors propagate; _preconditioner guards all-zero Jacobian rows with a named ComputationError; used_exos matches whole identifiers instead of substrings (verified identical exo set, 81=81, on the real model). - Validation gates extended from one to four pyfrbus like-for-like scenarios (monetary, fiscal egfe, tax trp, non-inertial Taylor) with committed vendor-generated fixtures agreeing to <=2.1e-8; scenario definitions shared verbatim between generator and gates; CI vendor-reference job matrixed over all four. - docs/mce-feasibility.md: concrete plan for model-consistent expectations (stacked-system solve), est. 2-4 days, no rewrite. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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percentile bands (68/90 default, configurable) around any shock
scenario, with honest replication failure accounting (n_failed,
failure_rate; raises only when all replications fail).
programming errors propagate; _preconditioner guards all-zero
Jacobian rows with a named ComputationError; used_exos matches
whole identifiers instead of substrings (verified identical exo
set, 81=81, on the real model).
scenarios (monetary, fiscal egfe, tax trp, non-inertial Taylor)
with committed vendor-generated fixtures agreeing to <=2.1e-8;
scenario definitions shared verbatim between generator and gates;
CI vendor-reference job matrixed over all four.
expectations (stacked-system solve), est. 2-4 days, no rewrite.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 noreply@anthropic.com