Working paper. Quantifies the July 17, 2026 BLS threshold correction, documents a replication of the BLS threshold methodology from public CE microdata, backtests threshold-projection rules, and commits to a pre-registered nowcast of the unpublished 2025 thresholds — graded against BLS's actual publication (~September 2026) in a planned revision.
quarto render # runs scripts/check_paper.py pre-render, then HTML + PDF to _output/The pre-render check regenerates every table from data/ via
scripts/build_tables.py, verifies data/SHA256SUMS, and re-derives
the load-bearing prose figures; the render fails if any of them
drifts from the artifacts.
Every numeric table is generated from the artifacts in data/
(SHA-256 sums in data/SHA256SUMS), which are produced by the scripts
in PolicyEngine/spm-calculator
(v0.4.0, PR #32). The prose cannot drift from the data without the
build failing.
- spm-calculator 0.4.0: corrected/published/legacy threshold series with provenance, CE replication, benchmark, backtest, nowcast, and the weekly BLS drift-watch workflow.
- policyengine-us #9081: adopts the corrected series in the US microsimulation model.