test_split.csv

text,label,note
"Netflix's top shows have been losing 30-70% of their audience between seasons 1 and 2. Executives are trying to figure out why.

This is a pretty interesting take; it’s another reason I’ve been slowly selling off my Netflix holdings. It seems like the Warner Brothers merger talks are what opened the door to all the recent bad news.",news,discussed with Aurora
"Put the remaining of my life savings ($150k) into OTM $SPOT calls going into earnings

Think these finally will hit big. Targeting all time highs - this is such an undervalued company",result,"pre-labeled, checked"
"Why Uber's latest earnings report was a major red flag for the state of the consumer

Uber is a company that I’ve followed for a long time. I have a bear case on it, but that’s not the point of this post. In combing through their latest Q1 earnings report I saw something that really stood out.

First, let’s look at the numbers. In the three months ended March 31st, Uber did $53.7 billion in gross bookings, $13.2 billion in revenue and $2.48 billion in adjusted EBITDA on 3.6 billion trips. Trips are totaled across eats and mobility. Whether I order McDonald's or a ride to the airport it counts as a trip.

For those unaware, gross bookings are the total spend on the platform. If I order a burrito and the total after all their fees is $32, that’s booked as $32 in gross bookings. Of that $32, Uber keeps some portion for themselves and gives a portion to the driver. That combined amount is booked as revenue. Of the revenue, the portion Uber keeps is booked as net income.

Uber does not break out trips across eats and mobility and that is a very key point which I will get to later.

However, Uber **does** break out gross bookings and revenue across mobility and eats. I’m intentionally excluding freight as it is totally immaterial to Uber’s business at this point.

Here’s what those numbers looks like:

[Gross Bookings](https://preview.redd.it/dfif1smt8r0h1.png?width=697&format=png&auto=webp&s=8a5dc53ca330d78321fa7da61f647227250f3f2f)

[Revenue](https://preview.redd.it/ch1dyemu8r0h1.png?width=699&format=png&auto=webp&s=a35ad6d50c1d5c799b0893159147008dea50f994)

As we can see here, there were large jumps in gross bookings year over year in both mobility and delivery. Looks pretty good.

But now let’s look at revenue: here we can see that while delivery rose a very impressive 34%, mobility only rose 5% and that was on 25% more gross bookings and 20% more trips across eats and mobility! **Adjusted for constant currency, Uber had absolutely no growth in their mobility segment year over year despite doing 25% more gross bookings.**

So what does this tell us? Well if we know that there were roughly 6 billion more trips year over year and bookings were 25% higher in mobility while revenue was totally flat, one has to conclude that there were many more trips performed in mobility year over year at lower prices.

My conclusion is this: Uber has two different customer bases- eats and mobility. The mobility side is extremely price sensitive. If costs are too high they will seek alternate modes of transportation like Lyft or driving or whatever else is available. However, I believe the eats side is relatively price insensitive. Whether a burrito costs $27 or $32 won’t sway someone who wants to eat and doesn’t want to leave the house.

Uber, knowing this, adjusts the dials to meet their combined targets. In the most recent quarter I believe they had to lower prices significantly to meet revenue estimates for mobility and simply raised prices on eats to offset what would have been a massive shortfall on combined revenue. Honestly I was shocked to see the street’s reaction to this report with the stock pumping 9% on the print and price targets being raised across the board given the size of that revenue miss.

Previously I stated that Uber does not break out trips across mobility and eats and now we can see why. It provides them the ability to blend revenue from both sides as needed to meet Wall Street’s loftier expectations. I suspect that if you had access to those figures you would see a K-shaped trajectory for mobility and eats, where many more trips happened on mobility at lower average prices while significantly fewer eats trips happened at much higher average prices. I would go so far as to say that nearly all if not more than the 20% growth in trips that were reported came entirely from the mobility segment and if you broke out the eats segment, trips likely were flat or down year over year.

This is all obviously subject to one’s own interpretation as to why Uber would have lowered prices so drastically in the mobility segment. However, looking at these numbers it's hard to dispute that at the very least Uber completed many more mobility trips at much lower prices. What that tells me is that the consumer at the bottom is becoming more and more price sensitive and that side of the business is becoming increasingly dependent on drivers who have to drive and riders who can’t afford higher fares.

Position: Short 800 shares, 10 Jan 27 $65 puts",analysis,"pre-labeled, checked"
Bullish,opinion,"discussed with Aurora; title 'Bullish' only, no reason in text; user first said analysis"
"Sold my QQQ $758 puts expiring today at $4.21 Before Sell Off

https://preview.redd.it/xjsijj7f6auh1.png?width=454&format=png&auto=webp&s=dffbf73a35d0aabd52f1f2875deebc6272a43c11

Good luck to whoever bought them from me.",result,"pre-labeled, checked"
"SUPER EL NIÑO IS COMING FOR COCOA : chocolate beans may be the trade nobody is watching

Not financial advice. I am long cocoa via a 2x leveraged cocoa ETC, so yes, I am biased. Posting this so people can challenge the thesis.

The basic idea: **cocoa crashed hard from the extreme 2024/25 highs, but the market may now be underpricing 2026/27 West Africa supply risk just as El Niño risk is becoming real.**

NOAA has now confirmed El Niño conditions are present. More importantly, CPC sees a real risk that this strengthens into a very strong event later this year. I am not saying a “Super El Niño” is guaranteed. I am saying the market may not be pricing that tail risk properly.  
Cocoa is not a normal equity trade. There is no CEO who can fix supply next quarter. Cocoa comes from trees, mostly in West Africa. Ivory Coast and Ghana dominate global supply. The trees are old, disease pressure is high, farmer investment is limited, fertilizer use is weak, and weather matters a lot.

**The bull case**

**1. El Niño is now confirmed**

This is no longer just a hypothetical weather story. NOAA/CPC has confirmed El Niño conditions, with strengthening expected into winter 2026/27.  
If this turns into a very strong El Niño, the risk is that West Africa gets hit by heat, drought, erratic rainfall, or generally bad weather at the wrong point in the crop cycle. That matters because cocoa supply is concentrated and fragile.

**2. The timeline is the real trade**

This is the key point. The market is still largely looking at the **old 2025/26 season**, which is winding down. Current arrivals and current mid-crop flow mostly tell us about the season that is already ending.

But the trade is not really about the old crop. The trade is about the **2026/27 main crop**, which starts being tested around the September/October window.

Crop damage also does not always show up immediately. If flowers, cherelles, young pods, or tree health are damaged now, the market may only see the full impact later through weaker pod counts, poorer quality, lower arrivals, or tighter export availability.

Rough timeline:

**June-July 2026:** El Niño is confirmed, but cocoa is still mostly trading old-season numbers and short-term weather headlines. Damage to flowers or young pods now may not yet show up in arrivals.

**June-August 2026:** This is the “quiet risk” window. Too much rain can increase disease pressure, flooding, access problems and flower/pod losses. A later shift to heat or drought can stress trees. This is where the new crop can be damaged before the market fully sees it.

**August-September 2026:** The market should start caring more about the 2026/27 main crop. Pod counts, cherelle formation, disease pressure, rainfall and producer/exporter behaviour become more important. If crop surveys deteriorate here, shorts may start getting nervous before physical tightness is obvious.

**September-October 2026:** The new main crop window begins. This is the first real test. If arrivals are strong, the bull thesis weakens. If arrivals disappoint, the market may need to reprice fast.

**November-December 2026:** Earlier weather damage should become more visible in main-crop flow, bean quality and exporter availability. This also overlaps with the period when very strong El Niño risk is expected to peak. If crop stress becomes visible here, short-covering risk rises.

**January-March 2027:** By this point, the market should have much better evidence. Either the main crop held up and the trade failed, or the damage is visible through weaker arrivals, lower quality, disease losses, or tighter processor coverage.

So the thesis is not “cocoa must go up tomorrow.”  
The thesis is that **the market may still be too comfortable because old-season numbers look manageable, while the real risk is the new 2026/27 crop that only starts being tested from September/October onward.**

**3. Ivory Coast is already cautious**

Ivory Coast has reportedly sold around 1 million metric tons of 2026/27 main crop cocoa forward, but slowed further sales because of concern about El Niño’s potential impact on output.

That matters. The world’s largest cocoa producer is not aggressively selling unlimited future beans into the market. They seem to be keeping optionality because weather risk is rising.

**4. Barry Callebaut is warning too**

Barry Callebaut is one of the biggest cocoa processors in the world, so this is not just random weather speculation.

Its CEO reportedly said El Niño could push cocoa bean prices up by **a few thousand pounds per metric ton**.

He did not say cocoa is definitely going back to the 2024 highs, but that is still a serious upside warning from someone whose business depends on physical cocoa flows.

That matters because processors are not paid to hype retail trades. If a major industry player is openly flagging El Niño upside risk, I do not think the market should treat this as irrelevant.

**5. The shorts are loaded**

This is the part that makes the setup interesting.

Latest CFTC COT data I checked showed managed money in cocoa at roughly:

**18,138 longs**  
**39,249 shorts**  
**net short around 21,111 contracts**

Each cocoa contract is 10 metric tons, so managed-money gross shorts represent roughly **392k metric tons** in contract terms.

That means a lot of speculative money is already positioned for cocoa to keep falling.

If they are right and the crop is fine, the trade fails.

But if El Niño turns into real West African crop stress, these shorts become potential future buyers. A weather-driven commodity with concentrated supply and crowded short positioning can move fast when the narrative flips.

**6. Crop signals are not fully reassuring**

Recent market reports have pointed to below-average cherelle formation in West Africa. Cherelles are young cocoa pods. Fewer young pods now can mean weaker production later.

That does not guarantee a bad crop, but it means the market should not completely dismiss supply risk.

**7. Weather is already moving the market**

Cocoa has been reacting sharply to West African weather headlines: heavy rain, flooding, wind damage, damaged flowers, then reversals when drier weather is forecast.

That tells me the market is sensitive. If the weather story escalates from “messy” to “crop-threatening”, repricing could be sharp.

**8. Structural supply is still fragile**

The 2024/25 spike did not come from nowhere. West Africa has had years of problems: disease, ageing trees, weak farmer incomes, low fertilizer use, underinvestment and unstable weather.

Even if demand weakens because chocolate is expensive, supply is not elastic. You cannot create new cocoa production overnight.

**Bear case**

There are real reasons this can fail.

Ivory Coast/Ghana production may recover versus the previous bad years.

Demand destruction is real because chocolate prices are high.

Food companies can reformulate and use less cocoa.

Better weather headlines can crush the trade quickly.

A leveraged ETC is risky because daily rebalancing can hurt badly in a sideways market.

COT data is weekly, not live, so positioning may already have changed.

El Niño does not automatically mean West African crop failure. The local rainfall pattern matters.

**Why I still like the setup**

This is not a call for cocoa to instantly return to the old highs.

The trade is simpler:

\- cocoa crashed,  
\- sentiment turned bearish,  
\- managed money is net short,  
\- NOAA has confirmed El Niño,  
\- very strong / Super El Niño risk is on the table,  
\- Ivory Coast is cautious on forward sales,  
\- Barry Callebaut is warning about upside price risk,  
the timing overlaps with the 2026/27 West African main crop,  
\- current weather damage may only become visible later,  
\- West African supply remains fragile,  
and any credible crop scare could force short-covering.

So the setup is not only a weather trade. It is a **weather + positioning + timeline** trade.

**Position:** long cocoa via 2x leveraged ETC.

**Thesis:** NOAA-confirmed El Niño + Super El Niño risk + fragile West African supply + crowded shorts + new-crop catalyst window = asymmetric upside if crop stress becomes real.

**Main risk:** good weather, demand destruction, improved production, and leveraged-product decay.

Tell me why this is wrong.",analysis,"pre-labeled, checked"
"Losing money by the second on NVDL any advice?

looking for some solid advice should I stop loss or hold? I'm ready to hold but only have about a year before I'll need the money.",result,"pre-labeled, checked; weak result: loss stated without a figure"
"Boys I'm getting pounded Try # 2 😭

Yo y'all gave me heat about not showing the balance, it's my first post here and I'm used to not really showing anyone 

anyways, I'm getting pounded out here today!! portfolio wide! 

Running covered calls on USAR, F , IONQ to work the chop in the mean time",result,"pre-labeled, checked"
"290k week

\+290k this week depending on how we close today. ending this Friday on a good note and probably stepping away from options for good. had a bit of a scare with index puts until it finally paid out and im taking it as a sign to leave

edit:screen rec of realized positions https://imgur.com/a/fZfnlhY

>!see yall monday!<",result,"pre-labeled, checked"
"TSM Earnings: 0-2 So Far, Surely I’m Due

Played TSM earnings the last two times and got burned both times, so I’m back for round 3.

100 shares at $448.37 + 13x $460C 10/16 bought today 

The shares are my safer way to stay in the trade.   
The calls are for the upside if TSM finally gets the move I think it deserves.  
It’s been weak for a while, but I still like the setup. Strong business, strong demand, and I think expectations are low enough for earnings to wake this thing up.  
Should be a solid setup… unless China decides to add a surprise plot twist

Third time’s the charm.",result,"pre-labeled, checked; HARD CASE: personal position and prior losses plus a thesis; result"
"Connecting the dots: Wolfspeed is about to get $1.5B from the White House. MAKE WOLFSPEED GREAT AGAIN

Me again. See two previous posts for DD on WOLF and CLF. I have to admit I fucked up in the last post but in the best possible way. I will explain.

Today the department of energy announced **$700 million in DPA Title III funding for coal plants.** Using the same emergency law & agency that I said was about to fund WOLF and CLF.

See the previous posts for what the companies actually do because it's worth understanding. TLDR: about a month ago the White House said they were going to use this funding measure for *power electronics and GOES.*

Now where I fucked up: in my research of Wolfspeed's filings I came across covenants referencing a $750m investment from the DOE. Because the number was the same as the CHIPS grant, I figured that's what the document was referencing. I was wrong. It is in ***addition to the CHIPS grant.***

Today's news is what made it click for me.

The Trump administration just used the DPA to deploy $700 million to coal plants. $425 million to keep 13 existing plants running,$185 million to build two new ones, $75 million for an export terminal.

NOW HOLD THAT THOUGHT

On April 20, 2026, the President issued a presidential determination. It designated the following as essential to national defense under the same DPA:

*""transformers...* ***power control electronics***..and ***electrical core steel***""

**Power control electronics.** That is the category that covers SiC, solid-state transformers, and everything that makes 800V data centers possible.

If they just wrote $700M to coal (a crappy industry let's be honest) using the same authority, how much do you think they are going to deploy for the technology that literally enables the AI infrastructure buildout that the entire US economy is betting on??????

I will tell you exactly: **$750 m to Wolfspeed. Plus another $750 million from the CHIPS Act. $1.5 billion total.**

And I can prove it.

On March 26, 2026: the same day Wolfspeed closed its 1.5L convertible note refinancing, their lawyers filed a boring document with the SEC.

Clearly nobody read it.

Buried in Section 8.02(j):

*"" first-priority Liens on the Siler City Assets securing DOE Financing permitted under Section 8.01(X) and (y) first-priority Liens on the Siler City Assets representing a federal interest and security interest in favor of the United States Department of Commerce, the CHIPS Program Office or any other Governmental Authority of the United States securing obligations permitted under Section 8.01""*

*and then:*

*""(xii) Indebtedness and other obligations secured by the Siler City Assets in an outstanding amount not to exceed at any time (1) $750,000,000 of obligations in respect of any DOE Financing, plus (2) $750,000,000 of obligations to the United States Department of Commerce, the CHIPS Program Office or any other Governmental Authority of the United States, in each case under this* ***Section 3.12(B)(xii)(2)****, in respect of award disbursements received pursuant to governmental grants under the CHIPS Act;""*

Claude, translate for non-lawyers:

Wolfspeed's existing creditors — the people holding $783 million of 9.875% senior secured debt — **formally agreed to step back** and let the DOE and the CHIPS Program Office take **first priority liens on Siler City** as collateral for their financing.

Siler City is the John Palmour Manufacturing Center. The world's largest SiC wafer fab. A $1 billion facility.

You do not ask your existing secured lenders to subordinate their claims on your most important asset unless you have an **active, negotiated financing with the federal government that specifically requires that collateral**. Latham and Watkins — Wolfspeed's restructuring counsel, one of the top firms in the country — drafted this. The 1L note holders consented to it. It was filed with the SEC.

This is not speculation. The legal plumbing is built, the creditors have consented, the collateral is pledged. The announcement is the only missing piece.

WOLF rn:

\~$783M of 1L Notes at 9.875% cash plus 4%= effectively 14% plus $1.17B of other debt at 3%

=$143M per year disappearing into the void (& Fab running way under utilization)

Let's say 100% of DOE loan proceeds are used to repurchase the 1L notes. $750M of 14% debt gets replaced with $750M of 3.5% debt. That saves \~83m per year.

The entire market is scared to invest in Wolfspeed because they are riddled with debt and way under utilization. WHAT HAPPENS WHEN BOTH OF THOSE THINGS CHANGE??

I am screaming this at you so hopefully the WSB algo picks this up and shows it to you. If you have the attention span to make it this far in today's day and age you deserve to make money.

The only question is when and the only honest answer is I don't know. The DPA announcement sets a 90 day time period to implement notices for funding so that puts us in July/August.

Currently trading around $67. YEs Its UP a LoT. It will go much higher.

EMBRACE YOUR INNER REGARDED WOLF. This company is a piece of shit. BUT NOT FOR LONG

Positions: 1000 shares and 40 calls. Hope tomorrow is down because I will roll them further out and higher.

  
AWWWWOOOOOOOOOOOOO

Sources:

[https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/04/presidential-determination-pursuant-to-section-303-of-the-defense-production-act-of-1950-as-amended-on-grid-infrastructure-equipment-and-supply-chain-capacity/](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/04/presidential-determination-pursuant-to-section-303-of-the-defense-production-act-of-1950-as-amended-on-grid-infrastructure-equipment-and-supply-chain-capacity/)

[https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/895419/000119312526126490/d138673d424b3.htm](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/895419/000119312526126490/d138673d424b3.htm)",analysis,"pre-labeled, checked"
"Used a $20k business overdraft from my dead beef jerky side hustle to go all in on MSTR

I had a beef jerky business, it made like $11 an hour after costs so I shut it down.

But before I did, the bank saw my potential as a thriving small business and handed me a $20k overdraft. I did not buy beef jerky.

Michael Saylor wakes up every morning and buys Bitcoin with money he doesn’t have. I respect this man more than anyone alive. He is doing with billions what I do with a beef jerky overdraft. We are the same person.

I’m 20 years old and I now hold 350 shares of MSTR

I already had shares sitting at a bad average. Most people would’ve cut and moved on. I sold my entire stock portfolio, used the meat money to DCA, and went all in.

The thesis is simple. Bitcoin keeps absorbing capital. MSTR is the leveraged bet on that happening and all the current panic is overblown.

The bank thinks I’m buying inventory. The inventory is bitcoin. Technically I am in the beef jerky business, I’m just jerking a different kind of meat now.",result,discussed with Aurora
"Samsung -8.6% as 50k workers prepare 18-day strike over 15% profit share demand, $2B daily loss risk and chip output cuts

Note:

* 50k workers is 40% of Samsung's South Korean workforce
* [$DRAM](https://www.roundhillinvestments.com/etf/dram/) holdings = 20% Samsung, 27% SK Hynix
* Few days later, [Samsung was granted court injunction against imminent strike action](https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/samsung-granted-court-injunction-against-imminent-strike-action-in-last-minute-reprieve-talks-resume-as-unions-barred-from-occupying-or-locking-facilities-obstructing-workers)

Discuss:

* Bullish or bearish for MU, SNDK, WDC, STX?
* Supply squeeze or demand slowdown for memory prices?
* Short-term shock or longer-term pricing catalyst?

\--

Source 1: [https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/samsung-strike-looms-why-analysts-say-to-watch-mu-as-memory-fabs-warm-down-4692589](https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/samsung-strike-looms-why-analysts-say-to-watch-mu-as-memory-fabs-warm-down-4692589)

Samsung Electronics has entered emergency management mode as up to 50,000 employees prepare to strike for 18 days starting May 21, according to Mizuho TMT Sector Specialist Jordan Klein. The company has begun a ""warm down"" of its memory fabs at the Pyeongtaek facility to prevent equipment damage during a potential stoppage.

Samsung management and its union remain far apart on negotiations, with the union demanding a 15% share of operating profits and removal of bonus caps. The company’s stock dropped 8.6% on Friday.

\--

Source 2: [https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/samsung-starts-winding-down-chip-producton-six-days-before-planned-18-day-strike](https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/samsung-starts-winding-down-chip-producton-six-days-before-planned-18-day-strike)

According to the Seoul Economic Daily, daily losses could approach 3 trillion won ($2 billion) if fabrication lines are paused entirely. Professor Kwon Seok-joon at Sungkyunkwan University previously estimated that the 18-day walkout alone would cause 10 trillion to 17 trillion won ($17 billion) in direct losses, while JPMorgan has projected total losses of up to 43 trillion won ($28 billion) when factoring in labor costs and extended production disruption.

https://preview.redd.it/0v7difz13p1h1.png?width=1594&format=png&auto=webp&s=2381d62cc48e775706cf6c61547c424944885a6a

https://preview.redd.it/os7g9o043p1h1.png?width=1583&format=png&auto=webp&s=5f7583831bb7eb16dbcec10e6392f8b2a588eaed",news,"pre-labeled, checked"
"I accidentally sold a put option and now I owe 70k USD.

How the fuck is this possible? I swear on my life that I don't sell put options so this was a misclick while I was trading.

Because I didn't know I sold a put. I didn't close it and now my account got liquidated and I owe 70k USD.

Am I actually fucked? How the fuck did one 350 USD contract turn into 70k USD.",result,"pre-labeled, checked"
"Is it normal that everyone knows we are in a bubble?

Seems that pretty much everyone knows we are in a bubble - retails, CEOs, Wallstreet, you name it. 

Sooooo it should mean everyone understands that at some point (sooner or later) it will pop, right? 

I don’t think people are really that stupid to believe we will have AGI soon? Or even if - that OpenAI would let people know about it / didn’t use it for its own purpose to create anything they want on their own?

So how does that makes any sense? Everyone knows it will pop, but everyone acts like it won’t pop?

How was dotcom, or 2007 compared in terms of people’s enthusiasm? Was it similar? People knew yet still acted like its not a big deal? 

I can’t process people could be just that stupid right?",opinion,"pre-labeled, checked"
"Long Oil into the Weekend on Continued Shipping Chaos OSINT

I love to watch the OSINT channels, HI Sutton, Whats Going on with Shipping, Ryan Mcbeth, Cappy Army, Preston Stewart, and a few others. These guys are ahead of the game and i pulled the trigger to pick up a single apr 16 36$ strike call option on UCO. (at least i put my money, though meager, where my mouth is....right next to the crayons i eat before bedtime).  
  
Whats going on with shipping's channel  has in particular clearly articulated just how bad the planning is around safe passage through the straits, watch the last 3 days of videos. Cappy Army (formerly of Task and Purpose) did a video on Kharg on friday that made me pull the trigger. Sure as anything, after the closing bell Kharg goes down.   
  
The night before the first strike at the end of february, Ryan McBeth said it was gonna go down that night and i thought about buying a long call a few months out  on oil and i said nah.....and went to sleep.   
  
Now, i'm not saying you should take financial advice from youtube OSINT guys nor a rando like me. But i've lived through Iraq one, Iraq 2 elecrtic boogaloo, the dotcom crash, and had a frontrow seat for 2008 as a mortgage broker.    
  
The point is, when the world is on fire going into the weekend and multiple sources are telling you the fire is spreading, go long on whatever makes money from the ashes be it calls or puts.    
  
May your tendies be tasty  
  
TLDR: Persian Gulf r Fked Long UCO",analysis,"pre-labeled, checked"
"Apple sues OpenAI alleging trade secret theft, says scheme was 'at every level'",news,discussed with Aurora
"AI haters waiting for an AI bubble to pop

Little do they know that there isn't even an AI bubble. More AI stocks hitting all-time highs. Supply is not even close to answering the demand.",opinion,"discussed with Aurora; HARD CASE: opinion vs analysis, gives loose reasons (ATHs, supply vs demand)"
"CoreWeave wove my anus

This thing is falling like a rock, was supposed to be a quick 2k premium. But now it’s generational holding opportunity",result,"pre-labeled, checked"
"jpow response

real one",opinion,discussed with Aurora; jpow 'real one' praise; video
"$VCX – The Private Tech Play the World is Sleeping On

VCX goes live tomorrow, March 19. Mark this day so you can tell your grandkids why they are eating real deal Fruit Loops instead of Aldi cardboard bulk flakes. 

**What Is VCX?**

VCX is the ticker for Fundrise's Innovation Fund that goes live tomorrow. It's a closed-end fund that owns equity stakes in the most coveted private tech companies in the known universe: **OpenAI, Anthropic, SpaceX, Databricks, Anduril, and Ramp**. Together those six names make up roughly 65% of the portfolio, with Canva, Vanta, and a handful of others rounding it out. These are companies that normally only show up in Sequoia's cap table, not your brokerage account. Fundrise is changing that.

The fund launched in July 2022 as a private, SEC-registered vehicle available to anyone — minimum investment of $10. It has since grown to $679 million AUM with around 100,000 investors. 

**The Track Record**

The fund **returned 43.5% net** in 2025 alone and has compounded at roughly 15% annualized since inception -- while dragging around a 25% cash and bond allocation the whole time to provide liquidity. That liquidity buffer existed to handle quarterly redemption requests from private investors. Once the fund lists on the NYSE, it doesn't need it anymore as liquidity comes from the market itself. That means the full portfolio gets deployed into the high-conviction VC positions. If you think private tech and AI companies will likely to continue to have outsized returns, keep reading.

**The Fees**

Flat 1.85% annual management fee. No performance fee. No carried interest. Traditional VC funds charge 2% per year plus 20% of your upside. Fundrise wanted to increase the management fee to 2.5% but the greedy private shareholders said no -- but the VCX listing is going forward anyway. For access to Anduril, Anthropic, OpenAI, Databricks, and SpaceX in a single ticker, 1.85% with no carry is a fair deal. You won't get access to this basket at this price anywhere else. 

**The Premium/Discount to NAV Question**

This is the most important thing to understand about closed-end funds: unlike ETFs, there's no mechanism that keeps the share price tied to the actual portfolio value. It trades wherever supply and demand take it.

The bearish case is funds like Pershing Square Holdings, which has traded at discounts of 9-40% to NAV for most of its life. The bullish case is DXYZ (Destiny Tech100) which holds a similar basket of private tech names and has at times traded at premiums exceeding 1,000% to NAV. As of today it still trades around 32% above NAV. Why? Scarcity. You will have difficulty buying this basket of shares anywhere else -- which could cause the price to spike dramatically. 

VCX holds a better-diversified portfolio than DXYZ, charges lower fees, and has a solid track record as the Innovation Fund dating back to 2022. A 20-50% premium to NAV in a continued AI bull market feels like a reasonable base case. The upside scenario, say if Databricks or Anthropic IPOs while VCX still holds shares, would be enough to buy your Gramma a sweet PT Cruiser.

**Risks (Don't be an idiot)**

Private valuations are estimates, not real-time prices. If AI sentiment turns, those marks could come down hard.  And if the macro environment tanks in the first half of 2026, VCX could trade at a discount to NAV. That's actually a buying opportunity if you believe in the underlying portfolio, but it would sting short-term. Fundrise management has commented that if VCX were to trade at a significant discount to NAV, they would see it as a buying opportunity themselves, which would push the NAV back up. There is some general thinking that the current AI build-out has gone overboard...but **Anduril is in talks to double their valuation**, Databricks just raised another $5B at $134B valuation (up from $100B in August 2025), and OpenAI just closed a round at a $730B valuation, up from $500B last year. 

**The Bottom Line**

VCX is the way to jump the velvet rope that has kept retail out of the best private tech companies for two decades. Their portfolio should cause you to salivate, the fee structure is competitive, and the demand for scarce private AI exposure is strong. Tomorrow is the day. Hold on to your butts. 

My position: Long $276k in Innovation Fund, soon to be VCX. 

\---

**TL;DR:** VCX is Fundrise's Innovation Fund going public on the NYSE tomorrow, March 19. Closed-end fund holding Anduril, OpenAI, SpaceX, Anthropic, Databricks, Ramp, and more. Flat 1.85% fee, no carry. Returned 43.5% in 2025. Going public frees up 25% currently sitting in bonds, improving the return profile. Comparable fund DXYZ trades at a significant premium because people will pay up for scarce private AI exposure -- VCX has a better portfolio and lower fees. This sub slept on the Innovation Fund. Don't miss out out VCX.

[VCX Launch announcement](https://fundrise.com/vcx)

[Video explaining VCX](https://youtu.be/PeQzEsRnXqw?si=8RDV3oXUg32XXdEg)

*Not financial advice. Do your own research. Don't bet money you can't afford to lose. Speculative bets should be a small part of your overall portfolio. May the Schwartz be with you.*",analysis,"pre-labeled, checked"
OpenAI annualised revenues $20bn less than previously signalled,news,discussed with Aurora
"Today is International Bear Day

Bulls are cooked today; full port calls tomorrow.",opinion,"pre-labeled, checked"
"Kylian Mbappe ends long-term Nike partnership to lead On’s football boots expansion

Just another blow to Nike! How does this company ever turn it around, or do they?",news,"pre-labeled, checked"
"$INFQ Loss part 2

I’m out.

Fuck this stock.",result,"pre-labeled, checked"
"WTF just happened to $RDDT?

Couldn’t find any news leading to a pre market 9% drop.",opinion,"pre-labeled, checked"
Anthropic shifts public offering to November,news,"pre-labeled, checked"
"Blue Orgin “accidentally” deploys their competitors satellites into the wrong orbit

You can’t make this shit up, out of the hundreds of payloads in this rideshare rocket, they manage to fuck up $ASTS satellites

Maybe $RKLB will be generous and launch their payload for them on their next electron mission, but this emphasizes the importance of end to end space business models, because now $ASTS has to wait 6 months for the next available slot on a rocket while $RKLB and SpaceX can launch whenever the fuck they want

Long $RKLB

[https://www.wsj.com/business/blue-origin-rocket-stumbles-on-first-commercial-mission-48999336?mod=e2tw](https://www.wsj.com/business/blue-origin-rocket-stumbles-on-first-commercial-mission-48999336?mod=e2tw)

Positions: $RKLB SHARES

Edit: holy fuck ASTS holders swarming here, I’m not bearish on ASTS and I think this is an over reaction but I’m just saying this is why $RKLB and SpaceX have superior business models and therefore the reason they will be bigger long term",analysis,"pre-labeled, checked"
"The Most Elaborate Perpetual Pump'n'Dump In Need of Shorting

One day I decided I needed a market edge and so I took a few 50mg Vyvanse broke them off and snorted them to get a faster kick. I then sat for 10 minutes waiting for a DD miracle but nothing happened...

The problem? Vyvanse is a prodrug and so snorting it won't speed up its effects. You see the Lisdexamphetamine is dextroamphetamine with an attached L-lysine (amino acid) that breaks off in your body using enzymes... thus creating this slow-release mechanism.

I wasn't discouraged and so I took short acting expired Ritalin, crushed it into about 120mg worth of powder and used the same delivery process to give me ""the edge"".

[The delivery process](https://i.redd.it/guhgylvldyag1.gif)

I instantly got hit with ""Writers euphoria"", some people say they see colors, all I saw was a pump'n'dump right in front of my eyes reaching the top of its pump. Perfectly timed using behavioral psychology to create strong FOMO to anyone waiting for their next hit of market open.

**If you haven't figured it out yet, I'm talking about SLS.**

I will attack this pump'n'dump scheme from several different views and maybe some of you will join me on this **'short'** trip.

# Buckle up buckeroos, we're gonna start with fundamentals

Currently this shitco is trading at a share price giving it a mkt. cap close to USD 600M. First thing that I ask is who is the customer?

It's a bunch of unlucky people who basically have at most 1-2 years to live with a somewhat uncommon form of cancer: Acute Myleoid Leukemia. If we look at how many people get it globally we're gonna arrive at roughly:

1.5-2.0 persons / 100.000

Now let's look at all cancers (this will be important):

± 200 people / 100.000

**.... HOLY FUCK THE VYVANSE IS KICKING IN.**

( What I didn't realize was that the Vyvanse has still entered my bloodstream and started dislodging the dextroamphetamine into my bloodstream, I have now trasncended into a dopamine and neuroephidephrine fueled state of being.)

\-----  
Why am I mentioning all cancers? Well it's to disrupt the one thing that is being spread through all the pump'n'dump posts: That this is a replacement for **Keytruda** (which was sitting at 25B revenue with 80% gross margins). But here's the first misconception that is being omitted in all the SLS cult posts:

Keytruda is all-purpose, while the shit that SLS is producing **is NOT**. You need to be tested for the presence of WT-1 antigen which is only done for blood disorders/cancers. You may find the presence elsewhere but it says absolutely nothing about it being usable for this (source: I know a few doctors).

This means that while Keytruda might target the 200 people out of 100... SLS drugs will barely target 1% of that.  Why do I say barely? Well because that these drugs are given to specific people... CDK-9 is effective only for people with a certain (less common) mutation and GPS is given (to my understanding) to people in remission.

So let's do simple math (before I make you even more depressed):

USD 25B ---> 1% ---> 250M (let's be optimistic and say that 80% are eligible) --> 200M

But wait it gets better... however right now my heart is pumping, pupils are needle-point sized and I need to lower the adrenaline in my bloodstream by doing the only sensible thing I learnt from Elon Musk... **low doses of ketamine.**

[Unlocking my full potential](https://i.redd.it/apm2dh6tdyag1.gif)

Keytruda gets administered constantly, unlike GPS which is like <20 injections. So that 200M you were looking at? Yea it's probably way lower.

Now that we've got over the ""HOLY SHIT THIS THING IS WORTH BILLIONS"" let's focus on the flying ponies in front of my eyes warning me about the financials and the CEO's marketing/dilution pattern.

# A Good Modern CEO is always Professional Bullshitter.

If you've ever worked as a Software Engineer you will always notice two flavors of your average SWE.

1. The technical guy who actually knows shit
2. The bullshitter who's liked, but does shit and yaps whole day

The first one if he's career driven will become a good CTO. The second one will become CEO.

This is true for every profession, reality is that CEO needs to be able to sell, especially bullshit, to keep investors happy and to bring them exit liquidity. It's all a zero-sum game. Nobody wins, especially not the poor cancer patients who are used for advertising just like white-monkeys are in China.

The CEO SLS is no different to other CEOs except that this guy is a master bullshitter. How do you become a master bullshitter? Ambiguity. Think of the (1) technical guy, he will always be precise in his formulations, because he knows what he's talking about. the (2) bullshitter will always be ambiguous because he wants to sound smart.

The CEO has a beautiful pattern of selling very ambiguous news, carefully wording them in a way that the SLS cult members (read bagholders and MLM leaders) parrot the ""actual"" but not-factual message to the masses. Just look up the recent posts on bagholder/p'n'd subreddits for SLS. It's all bullshit purposefully pushed by bots and marketing team.

After the share price jumps high, the CEO cuts a financing deal that basically tanks the price into oblivion, not including the perpetual warrant inducement plan (which alone makes acquisition very unlikely).

The best part? The CEO gets paid heftily even though close to 50% shareholders want to lower his above-standard pay. And there's a good reason he's getting such high cash bonuses - he knows it's all bullshit.

All of this will mean that if this company gets acquired (which is unlikely) it will be sold at a discount and not a premium. Notice the pattern that even after so many dilutions the market drives the price close to $4 a share... with constantly increasing share count it's amplifying the speed at which the company's valuation grows even though they still haven't really presented anything substantial.

# Let's Look at the Recent Catalyst

So what spiked the current share price above $4? Results of the REGAL study were postponed, which was seen negatively and so the CEO wrote a very ambiguous post saying something on the lines of:

""We're still waiting for more deaths so that we can conclude the study."" Which is absolutely hilarious. Because it doesn't say anything about SLS specifically, yet people interpret it in a way that it does and that the SLS specific treatment is actually the good one (it may be, but given the pattern I doubt it will be statistically significant)

The study includes both BAT (best available treatment) and the SLS drugs. The deaths they are waiting for might well be the BAT ones, while the SLS patients have already died (grim I know). Their argument: Average BAT life expectancy is 8 months or whatever they're saying.

So why do people think it's ""good news"" for SLS? Because people think they understand statistics when they actually don't. Heck I studied it, specialized in it as a mathematician... and even I will never dare to say that I fully understand statistics. Reality is that the delay might be negative, neutral or positive.  
**WHY?:**

* Many factors come into patient selection - The study isn't the typical ""let's pick 130 people at day 1 and start our tests"" they come in different cohorts/groups
* You have high odds of selecting the ""good group"" that could even survive 5 years with bad treatment (this can be 10-15%)
* All the bull posts you see focus on using the average as proof that this study is going on longer than it should (which is a very misleading statistic, and using it like this is pure bullshit for gullible people)... Average needs to be understood in a way that you will have people who died after 3 months and people who lived those 5 years -> and that will average out, so just looking at number of occurred deaths is not enough to know if there is a statistical significance. Saying that the study is going longer than expected is absolute bullshit, because if you have the healthier group by accident they will survive longer, but it will also be reflected in the final statistical analysis.
* A small sample size like this is prone to distortions, follow up studies will be needed to know if this really works or not, which btw will definitely lead to more cash burn.

**But most importantly:**

* BAT for AML has significantly improved... and by significantly I mean really significantly. The 8 month figure is somewhat outdated by now as it might be closer to 10-12 months. Increasing the actual statistical significance needed to be observed with GPS.

# Unsustainable Cash Burn and More to Come

The cash burn of this company is insane and even if they succeed with their tests they will face even higher cash burn due to the necessary shit they need to do to get this drug approved and into production. Given their current free cash, it's more than likely that they will need to raise more money.

# So Why Are You Bearish?

Well I like to think of it in terms of probability / uncertainty, specifically conditional probability. (Let's denote P(event | A ) as Probability of Event conditioned by A happening) Asks yourself this, which probability is higher?:

(1) P( Good News | CEO Bullshitted every single time AND Cash Burn bad )  
(2) P( Bad News | CEO Bullshitted every single time AND Cash Burn bad )

Which is more likely to be true? (1) > (2) or (1) < (2)?

I'm gonna go with the likelihood of bad news as probable... This doesn't mean that the drug won't work, I just am certain that they will have to raise cash no matter what and the valuation once actual funds take a look at the revenue projections won't be as high as the current valuation.

The fact that the Trump Admin is pushing for cheaper drugs, is also pretty negative for any biotech trying to get their life-saving medication out there... This isn't the ""age of biotech"" (un)fortunately.

Hence I'm buying puts.

**NOTE:** I'm not a biochemist, I might be wrong and I'm betting only money that I'm willing to lose, so don't follow blindly, do your own DD. Also brace for this post being downvoted by the SLS gang and Indian bots. One last thing... a big middle finger fuck you to anyone who is trying to profit by using dying people as advertisement.

https://preview.redd.it/xul15buwdyag1.png?width=892&format=png&auto=webp&s=292f3986d4e479518690dcee02953c68b4212c9d

**My position is small, because I'm locked down in other trades, sharing mostly because I like to do equity research:**

https://preview.redd.it/86f0tiv8eyag1.jpg?width=549&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=971f62f43ea2409f69d90f4b226e6efcc0e59418

EDIT: To the existing and new bots out there, the SLS cult and other believers, yes I will double down if the stock price goes up:) Answering here since I received ""very nice"" DM requests.",analysis,"pre-labeled, checked"
For all you degens,opinion,discussed with Aurora
President Trump says he will no longer be imposing 10% tariffs on EU countries on February 1st.,news,"discussed with Aurora; tariff announcement, external fact"
"Hockey as a bellwether, economy slowing down?

I’ve definitely been a perma bear and have been wrecked over the last night, and most likely for the foreseeable future. I’ve thought the economy has been in a precarious spot, but over the years have continued to see people spend high $xxx, and even $x,xxx for concerts and sporting events. If people are spending this, they are clearly fine.

Might be localized to Vegas, but not even ticket-fraud-ster is buying up all of the tickets at Vegas golden knights home games.

Since 2017-2018 there have been 352 home games and all but the last two games have sold out.

Most notably it was the worst team but also one of the most popular teams the Toronto maple leafs that didn’t sell out and fell 1390 tickets shy (15977 out of 17367). Could just be Canadians sending a message.

Or that Vegas is not the place to be.

Or that the sky is falling short everything.",analysis,cold; relabeled opinion->analysis (Milestone 5: fact or mechanism carries the argument)